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温柔的谎言

    发布时间:2026-08-26  

    开讲啦

    红线,拜登与内塔尼亚胡的隔空对决!_我的网站

    太极张三丰

    A |     WARSAW, Poland -- Three opposition parties that vowed to restore democratic standards in Poland together won over 54% of the votes in the nation's weekend parliamentary election, putting them in a position to take power, according to a complete ballot count reported Tuesday.The conservative Law and Justice party, which has governed the country for eight turbulent years, won slightly over 35% of the votes, making it the single party with the most votes. But the party and its leader Jarosław Kaczyński lost their majority in parliament and appeared to have no way to hold onto power.The official ballot announced by the National Electoral Commission aligns closely with an exit poll released after voting ended Sunday.Turnout was nearly 75%, a record that surpassed even the 63% turnout of 1989, a vote that triggered the collapse of the oppressive Soviet-backed communist system. Law and Justice had been moving the country down an illiberal path, taking control of courts in a manner that violated the country's constitution. The party politicized state institutions, including taxpayer-funded public media which it used as a crude propaganda tool to praise itself and vilify opponents.The result was a huge victory for Donald Tusk, the head of the largest opposition group, Civic Coalition. He appeared likely to return to his past role as Polish prime minister, a job he held from 2007-14. He also served as the European Council president, a top job in the EU, from 2014-19.Tusk's success is all the more remarkable given that state media went into overdrive to portray him as a stooge of Germany and Russia. That portrayal, which appeared baseless, also won him much sympathy.Tusk himself won more than half a million votes running for a seat in parliament. His party said it was the best result in the history of parliamentary elections in Poland.The result was a huge relief for Poles concerned about the country’s international isolation at a time of war across the border in Ukraine and the constant bickering with the European Union. Many feared it could cause the country's eventual exit from the 27-member bloc.The LGBTQ+ community also suffered a smear campaign in recent years, being portrayed as a threat to the nation by the conservative ruling party. Liberal critics were sometimes depicted as disloyal to the country. Over the years, massive protests led by women rocked the country as the party restricted the abortion law to prevent the termination of pregnancies with fetal abnormalities.Young people and women were among those who voted in droves to get rid of the Law and Justice party, which won in 2015 vowing to fight corruption and help even out economic inequalities. While its social spending did help many Polish pensioners and families, solidifying a solid base of support, the party has increasingly faced allegations of corruption.The National Electoral Commission said that Law and Justice won slightly over 35% of the votes, and the far-right Confederation party, a possible ally, about 7%.Three opposition groups won a collective of 53.7%, enough for a comfortable majority of 248 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, or Sejm; The Civic Coalition garnered 30.7% of the vote while the centrist Third Way got 14.4% and the New Left about 8.6%.The three ran on separate tickets so they are not formally part of the same coalition, but all promised to cooperate to restore the rule of law.Law and Justice will have 194 seats, far short of the majority it held for eight years. Confederation increased its presence from 11 in the outgoing parliament to 18 seats in parliament. It had hoped for more after a brief summertime surge in the polls.The opposition, which had a razor-thin majority in the outgoing Senate, has now obtained an overwhelming majority of 66 out of 100 seats in that upper chamber. The Senate is far less powerful than the Sejm, but still has some limited influence over the legislative process. Law and Justice will only have 34 seats.In another sharp blow to Law and Justice, a referendum held alongside the vote failed to reach the 50% needed to be valid. Many voters boycotted it to protest loaded questions on migration and other fraught issues which appeared aimed mostly at mobilizing the ruling party's supporters.Although the voting is over, it might still take weeks for a new government to be in place.President Andrzej Duda, an ally of Law and Justice, must call for the first session of the new parliament within 30 days of election day and appoint a prime minister to form a government.In the meantime, the current government will remain in a caretaker role.。

    B |     

    一个决定向前开战,哪怕孤军奋战;一个决定要控制住他,为了加沙人唯一的避难地拉法,以免美国价值崩塌,拜登和内塔尼亚胡正在隔空对决。
    以色列与哈马斯的战争爆发以来两人的关系就陷入严峻的考验,美国总统与以色列总理之间 现在因为拉法再次突破各自的底线。拜登日前发出威胁,如果内塔尼亚胡决定对加沙人口极其密集、巴勒斯坦逃难者唯一的避难地拉法发动攻击的话,他将停止提供弹药。
    在战争爆发7个月之后,美国总统首次向以色列划出了一道红线。
    拜登正在经受巨大压力,一方面美国大选年竞争激烈,几个摇摆州前景不明,另一方面,在以色列对加沙发动造成大规模平民死亡的攻势后,拜登终于把支支吾吾的言语化为行动。
    随之而来的是,拜登又一次把与以色列政府的分歧暴露在光天化日之下,不久之前,拜登形容内塔尼亚胡政府是以色列有史以来极右翼的政府。
    两人在加沙战后怎么办、以及在创建巴勒斯坦国的问题上严重分歧。
    在拜登周三发出威胁后,内塔尼亚胡周四说,“如果我们必须孤军奋战,我们就孤军奋战”。以色列军队发言人声称,他们“拥有在拉法完成使命的足够的弹药”。
    白宫则努力淡化,强调“以色列政府已经明白有一段时间,”什么是华盛顿的红线。对拜登总统来说,“很简单。他将继续向以色列提供所需的能力…… 但不允许把部分类型的美国武器在某种情况下使用”。
    白宫安全发言人柯比还表示,对华盛顿来说,以色列尚未在拉法的 “人口中心 ”发起这一大规模行动,而柯比先生认为,这将 “加强哈马斯在谈判桌上的地位”。
    在私下,美国一些高官担心,尽管华盛顿不断发出警告,以色列还要去攻打拉法。已知以色列军队在拉法四周部署了坦克,并控制了拉法出境口通道。而这一出境口对运输支援已濒临大饥饿边缘的巴勒斯坦人民的人道物品至关重要。
    美国高官承认,如果以色列还是决定在拉法发动这次大规模行动,武器牌作为重要的施压手段就可能失效。但是,事实上,正如拜登所承认的,“由于美国的这些炸弹,已经导致加沙的平民大规模丧生”。

    C |

    兰德公司研究小组的拉斐尔-科恩说,暂停运送武器 “显然是美以关系紧张的一个迹象,也表明民主党左翼对拜登施加了越来越大的压力,要求他限制巴勒斯坦受害者的人数”。

    D | 他补充说:“尽管如此,从纯粹的政治角度来看,拜登和内塔尼亚胡依然相互彼此需要”。

    登可能担心如果他过分支持以色列,会疏远中间派选民,而内塔尼亚胡知道,在全世界都对以色列感到愤怒的时候,他需要美国的支持。
    美国每年向以色列提供 30 亿美元的资金和武器,是以色列的主要捐助国。

    E | 虽然华盛顿不会质疑对以色列的长期安全援助,尤其是在伊朗于 4 月 14 日对以色列发动史无前例的袭击之后,但越来越多的人呼吁美国的军事援助应附带条件。

    陷入多个官司,指望东山再起的前总统特朗普找到了机会,拜登在 11 月总统大选中的这位对手周四毫不修饰直指责拜登 “站在 ”哈马斯一边。
    这位共和党候选人说:”拜登在以色列问题上的所作所为是一种耻辱。

    F | “他完全抛弃了以色列”。

    共和党众议院议长迈克-约翰逊也谴责了这一 “有可能给以色列的敌人壮胆 ”的决定。
    共和党对这位民主党总统群起而攻之,拜登发现自己陷入了两难境地:既不能让人觉得他是以色列轰炸的同谋,以色列的轰炸已造成数万名巴勒斯坦人丧生,又不能让人觉得他抛弃了自己的长期盟友。
    特别是波及全美国的校园帐篷运动之下,数千名学生被捕,导致国内年轻人支持率直线下降,这才是对拜登竞选连任的致命伤!
    。

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    Published on:04:13:10



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